Session C-2

 

Title:                            Modelling adaptation strategies to cope with climate change

Session organisers:   Jim Hansen (Int. Research Institute for Climate Prediction, New York, USA), Lennart Olsson (Lund Univ., Sweden)

Keynote speaker:       Holger Meinke (Wageningen University, the Netherlands)

 

Scope of the session:  Climate change is virtually inevitable since the rate of build-up of greenhouse gasses exceeds even the most pessimistic of the IPCC scenarios. While there is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude and even direction of climate change at regional and local scales, it will certainly create both new challenges and new opportunities, and likely intensify many of the challenges associated with current climate variability. Agriculture must adapt swiftly to a changing climate change while reducing its own emissions of greenhouse gases. Such change must be managed in the face of considerable uncertainty about the future climate and other global drivers of change, and without jeopardizing global food security, the livelihoods of the world’s poor or the natural resource base on which agriculture depends.

The session will discuss the use of integrated modeling and decision support tools to guide adaptation and mitigation decisions in agriculture. It will highlight challenges and approaches both globally and in the context of case studies in developing and developed countries. It will also emphasize the potential of achieving synergies between adaptation and mitigation in agriculture.